To follow up on the last post, it seems that not everyone is predicting doom and gloom in the world of foreign currency trading. A new survey from the National Association of Business Economics shows that while the U.S. should expect a deeper-than-predicted recession for the first half of 2009, the economy will make a turn for the better in the second half of 2009 and should enjoy a solid recovery in 2010. According to the economists surveyed, the U.S. economy will decline at a five percent rate in the first quarter and decline another 1.7% in the second but gain 1.6% in the second half of the year. While that won’t be enough to post a gain in economic activity for the year—the survey indicates a 0.9% full-year drop due to high unemployment, declining housing starts, and corporate profit losses, among other factors—the economy could see as much as 3.1% growth in 2010, despite some continuing job loss.
More good news for traders of the USD who primarily rely on fundamental forex analysis: the survey says that the U.S. will most likely be the first major economy to recover from the global recession, followed by China and Canada. Very few expect that European economies will be among the first to recover.